EIAS Policy Briefs analyse current issues in Asia and recommend appropriate European Union (EU) responses.

In the following year, the Policy Briefs are looking to cover some or all of the following issues:

ASEM V: Political Criteria for Enlargement?

Central Asian Regionalism: European Union Policy Responses

Consequences of Instability on the Korean Peninsula

East Asian Economic Integration: What it means for Europe

Faltering South Asian Integration

Good Governance, Transparency and Corruption

India-Pakistan: What Role for the EU?

Indonesia's 2004 Elections

Muslim Politics in Asia

Sri Lanka's Peace Process

Policy Briefs are available individually for €10,00 (includes EU postage), or as part of the EIAS Publication Membership.

Editor: John Quigley

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Relocating Productive Capacity to China? Or Elsewhere?
By Prof Em Sylvain Plasschaert, University of Antwerp and Catholic University of Leuven

This paper attempts to chart and analyse the phenomenon of delocalisation, which is by no means a novel one, but which is no doubt accelerating in rapidly evolving and globalizing world arena, with a focus on China an the new EU Member States (MS) in Europe. It characterises subcontracting within the same country as externalisation whereas 'outsourcing' refers to subcontracting abroad, typically in a lower-cost location.

It looks at the two main categories of Foreign Direct Investments, namely those motivated by market-seeking and efficiency-seeking respectively. In recent years, China has become the most important recipient of FDI funds thereby dislodging the USA. China's recent accession to the WTO further stimulates the eagerness of foreign firms -- amongst them almost al large MNE's -- to set up production in China. The opening of great many service sectors to foreign participation appears to uinleash a new round of FDI's such as those of the large supermarket chains.

As regards FDI's, China presents a most favourable position, indeed which no other country can probably match, namely the (unbeatable?) combination of low wages and of other costs on the one hand, and of an alluring large domestic market, on the other hand. How does the group of new MS in Central Europe compare with China in terms of its capacity for attracting FDI's? Can they also be turned into an export platform for EU companies and perhaps become another 'workshop for the world'?

As these MS now belong to the overall single EUmarket exports from one new MS, say from Hungary, to another new MS or one of the EU-15 are no longer subject to import duties. A large number of parameters which would otherwise constrain inter-national transactions are now unified. Central Europe also presents a number of comparative advantages over West European markets with respect to the cost-minimizing variety of FDI: close proximity to these markets; much lower wages; cultural affinities and the option to join the Euro currency; a workforce with a hig level of technical skills and the scope for fragmented production to thrive due to an integrated market.

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Dynamics of East Asian regionalism, what implications for the EU?
By Jappe Eckhardt

East Asia is one of the fastest growing and most dynamic regions in the world and has become an increasingly influ- ential player on the international stage. At the moment the region is going trough historic economic and geopolitical changes that will have important implications for the world economic landscape.

One of the most dramatic changes has been the economic slowdown of Japan since the end of the 1980s. Japan, the country of the economic miracle, the undisputed economic leader of the region, suddenly fell from his pedestal. Although there are signs that the Japanese economy is back on the right track, it is highly questionable whether Japan is capable of regaining its dom- inant position as the regions economic leader. All the more since, during Japan's slowdown, China's economy grew with a breathtaking speed and is now seen as a challenge to Japan's leadership.

But the question is whether China will be able to sustain this high growth and, if so, indeed (as some say) overtake Japan as the regional economic leader in the near future? Paradoxically, another important devel- opment in East Asia is the growing economic interdepen- dence between China and Japan. In the last five years the Sino-Japan bilateral trade volume have been growing with approximately 30 percent per year to almost 130 billion dol- lars a year in 2003.

This growing warmth in the economic relationship between Japan and China, some say, can be the overture for closer integration within in the region. As stated above all these changes not only have important impli- cations for the region but also for the world at large. What are the specific implications for the EU? And how should the EU respond to the dynamics in East Asia?

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Burma/Myanmar and ASEM Enlargement 2004: What Lessons from Cambodia and ASEAN Enlargement in 1997?
By Erik Friberg, Research Associate at the Center of Human Rights and Conflict Resolution, the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, Massachusetts, U.S.A.

It is increasingly clear that the military junta ruling Burma/Myanmar has become a burden not only for the vast majority of the country's inhabitants, but also for the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN).

While the drug trafficking, illegal migration, forced labour, HIV/AIDS epidemic, lack of democratic governance and ethnic conflicts pose serious threats to regional security, one current diplomatic headache concerns whether Burma/Myanmar should be invited to join the Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) process. Should Burma/Myanmar join ASEM together with the 10 new member States of the enlarged European Union (EU) and along with Laos and Cambodia at the Fifth ASEM summit in Hanoi in October 2004?

With divisions remaining high and time running out, can the opposing views on this issue between the current European and Asian ASEM countries be bridged - and are there any lessons that can be learnt from the ASEAN experience of delaying Cambodia's entry to ASEAN in 1997?

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What are the foreign and national security policy implications of Congress' return to power in India?
by Dr Apurba Kundu, EIAS Senior Research Fellow

The 2004 Indian general elections stunned observers when, contrary to expectations, the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) coalition government led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Prime Minister Atul Behari Vajpayee was defeated by an electoral coalition led by the Indian National Congress (INC) headed by Sonia Gandhi.

A further surprise came when Gandhi declined to become India's first foreign-born prime minister, opting instead to back party stalwart Dr Manmohan Singh for this office. Dr Singh, India's first Sikh prime minister, now heads a United Progressive Alliance (UPA) coalition government headed by a cabinet containing 19 INC members and 10 members of smaller parties.

Will the return to power of the INC after eight years in opposition (during three years of Left Front then five years of BJP/NDA rule) result in a shift of India's foreign and national security policies?

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China, India and Pakistan: A nuclear arms race in Asia?
By Major-General (retd) Dipankar Banerjee, AVSM

How likely is a nuclear arms race in Asia between China, India and Pakistan? These three countries are home to over 2.5 billion people, or 40 per cent of the global population. An excessive spending on nuclear weapons systems will not only deprive their large populations of the fruits of development, but also holds out the possibility of a horrendous conflict.

After 36 years in active service with the Indian Army, Major General Dipankar Banerjee sought voluntary retirement in August 1996 to pursue full time his interests in policy research. He is currently the Head and Director of the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS), New Delhi, an independent think tank on peace and security which he helped found in 1996, and to which he recently returned after stints at the United States Institute of Peace, Washington DC, and the Regional Centre for Strategic Studies, Colombo.

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Can the EU play a meaningful role in Asian security through the ASEAN regional forum?
by Dr Axel Berkofsky, EIAS Research Fellow

This Policy Brief provides an overview of the EU’s influence in the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF). It addresses the question of whether the EU, as the “distant power”, can play a meaningful role in Asian security through a forum whose character is still mainly consultative and not designed to implement legally-binding policies.

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EIAS Policy Briefs  analyse current issues in Asia and recommend appropriate European Union (EU) responses.

As such, Policy Briefs must be accessible to a wide but knowledgeable audience, as their intended readership includes EIAS members—academics, administrators, diplomats, journalists, policy-makers, researchers—and decision-makers throughout the EU institutions.

Policy Briefs may be no longer than 3000 words, and do not use footnotes. However, they must include a list of references and/or suggestions for essential further reading.

Submissions must be made in digital format, preferably as an email attachment in Microsoft Word.

Submissions must be accompanied by a brief curriculum vitae of the author.

At the moment, authors may submit papers in Dutch, French or German, although English is the preferred language of submission. All words or terms not in these languages must be translated.

Unsolicited manuscripts will not be accepted. Instead, academics, policy-makers, journalists and others who are interested in writing a Policy Brief should contact the EIAS Institute to discuss their intended topic and methodology.

Editorial contact details:

European Institute for Asian Studies - asbl
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B-1040 Brussels
Belgium

Tel: 00 32 (0)2 282 4751
Email: eias@eias.org